A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
